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Votes in this Pennsylvania county have been a predictor of past elections

STEVE INSKEEP, HOST:

The presidential campaign feels like it's been running full blast, peak intensity for many months now, especially in what are called battleground states, the scenes of so many candidate visits, political ads, and volunteers who do everything from stuff envelopes to knock on doors. NPR's Don Gonyea has been tracking all of this in one place that's proven to be both important and predictive in recent presidential elections - Erie County, Pa.

DON GONYEA, BYLINE: Trump sign - drain the swamp, Trump 2024. Right across the street, Harris-Walz.

GONYEA: Driving down a neighborhood street in Erie County, you get a real sense of just how closely divided this place is.

There's a Harris-Walz sign to the left. And then right here, same block, Trump.

Erie County is such a hotly contested place because politically it is a microcosm of Pennsylvania. The county and the state went for Obama, then four years later for Trump, then in 2020, for Biden. In the city of Erie, it's deep blue Democratic. Out in the rural areas, it's Trump country. But on the outskirts of downtown and in the suburbs, it's much more mixed.

Erie County Democratic party chair Sam Talarico says those street signs capture what it's all about around here. He says he's pleased by the energy he's seeing from Democrats, saying it really kicked in with the change at the top of the ticket.

SAM TALARICO: Since President Biden decided to drop out, and Kamala Harris took the reins, it has been crazy, actually. I mean, we had 60 people on our volunteer list the day before he dropped out, and right now we have 310 people.

GONYEA: Across town, Erie County Republican chairman Tom Eddy says there's no lack of enthusiasm among Republicans either. But he acknowledges that the Democrats have gotten a morale boost with Harris.

TOM EDDY: All of a sudden, she becomes the best thing since sliced bread. Obviously, I think that's energized the other side, because the other side, I think was falling asleep with Biden.

GONYEA: Across Erie, Democrats and Republicans alike, tell us they're worried about the economy. But Democrats we talked to also list abortion and protecting democracy as top priorities, while Republicans say it's the border. Here's 82-year-old Trump supporter Rich Pisano, in the small town of Gerard in Erie County.

RICH PISANO: I mean, you've got probably 10, 15 million people coming in this country that we're paying for.

GONYEA: The very next person we saw on the same block was 20-year-old Lacey Buswell. She's a student at a nearby college and a Harris supporter who points to the need to protect reproductive freedoms. She also cites Trump's overall campaign rhetoric.

LACY BUSWELL: It's kind of, like, fearmongering a lot, and I just don't - a lot of his stuff is not facts. I don't like liars.

GONYEA: Back in April, on an earlier trip to Erie, we talked to 34-year-old Bekah Mook, an undecided voter who didn't want another Trump term, but wasn't sure about Biden. Now...

BEKAH MOOK: All Kamala. Everything's - there's not one percentage of Trump in there.

GONYEA: Mook says she grew up conservative, but says she's been turned off by the GOP's language and hard-line stances.

MOOK: Every other word that comes out of the Republicans' mouth, I feel like, is just bullying, you know?

GONYEA: Kamala Harris is energizing voters like Mook, but outside a popular doughnut shop downtown...

(CROSSTALK)

GONYEA: County Councilman Andre Horton is talking about the voters who are not energized to go to the polls every cycle.

ANDRE HORTON: You might have 600 registered, 50 vote.

GONYEA: Horton is a Democrat and says voter apathy crosses race, class, party, and geography. But his focus is turning out voters in underperforming districts here, including historically Black neighborhoods.

HORTON: As goes Erie goes Pennsylvania. And so we believe that if we dig those underperforming votes out in those districts, that we will have a profound impact on the election.

GONYEA: Neighborhood near downtown, we met 38-year-old Robin Williams, who says he has never voted. He likes what Harris has to say. But...

ROBIN WILLIAMS: But are they really going to do what they're saying, or are they just going to play us so they can get in office?

GONYEA: Williams says he won't vote this year, either. Both campaigns know that Erie is an important place. Democratic vice presidential nominee Tim Walz held a rally last month, and GOP nominee Trump was here last Sunday for a rally. On that day, there was a steady stream of people arriving by 8 a.m.

BLAKE HEYNOSKI: Got a baseball Jersey on that has Trump 45 on the back there. I got the Trump socks on.

GONYEA: That's Blake Heynoski. He's 26 and works at a car dealership. His big issues - the economy and the border. Same for a 36-year-old mother of two Jamie Billig.

JAMIE BILLIG: You know, it's insane to raise a family right now trying to buy groceries or afford anything, really. Saving is virtually impossible, and I have a good job.

GONYEA: And while she's glad to be here for the Trump rally, Billig does say an election year in Erie can be a bit much, especially when you're just trying to have some fun with the kids.

BILLIG: Were watching YouTube the other day for music. We're having a dance party in the living room. And every ad that came on was a Kamala ad. It's frustrating. It's in your face all the time.

GONYEA: Such is life in a battleground county, always another rally, always another person with a clipboard knocking on the door, always another ad on TV or on your phone, and always an eye on the calendar telling you how many days are left.

Don Gonyea, NPR News, Erie, Pa. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.

NPR transcripts are created on a rush deadline by an NPR contractor. This text may not be in its final form and may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability may vary. The authoritative record of NPR’s programming is the audio record.

Don Gonyea
You're most likely to find NPR's Don Gonyea on the road, in some battleground state looking for voters to sit with him at the local lunch spot, the VFW or union hall, at a campaign rally, or at their kitchen tables to tell him what's on their minds. Through countless such conversations over the course of the year, he gets a ground-level view of American elections. Gonyea is NPR's National Political Correspondent, a position he has held since 2010. His reports can be heard on all NPR News programs and at NPR.org. To hear his sound-rich stories is akin to riding in the passenger seat of his rental car, traveling through Iowa or South Carolina or Michigan or wherever, right along with him.
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