A MARTÍNEZ, HOST:
With little more than one week until the presidential election, the race between Vice President Harris and former President Trump is neck and neck. But there's also a lot riding on the outcome of U.S. Senate races in many states. Democrats currently have a razor-thin majority in the Senate, 51 seats to Republicans' 49 seats. Jessica Taylor is a nonpartisan election analyst with The Cook Political Report. Jessica, so as I mentioned, razor-thin majority for Democrats in the Senate, so no room for error - what are the Senate races that you've been paying attention to, starting with the most vulnerable seats?
JESSICA TAYLOR: Well, West Virginia is the most vulnerable, and that's one with retiring Senator Joe Manchin that's going to flip to Republicans. So that means that Democrats essentially start at 50-50, so they cannot lose any incumbent. And the most vulnerable incumbent running for reelection is Jon Tester in Montana. We've seen a remarkable coherency between the Senate races and the presidential races in the past two election cycles. In 2016, every single Senate race went the same way as the presidential election result. In 2020, only Susan Collins managed to win. So Tester is running in a state that Trump won by 16 points, and he has been behind in polls, so we rate that race as lean Republican. So that means that Republicans have the clear advantage when it comes to the Senate. So now it becomes sort of stemming their losses.
Ohio is the next most vulnerable, with Democrat Sherrod Brown there running in a state that Trump won by 8 points. He's neck and neck with his Republican challenger, Bernie Moreno. But despite the fact that Trump's going to win that state, Brown has a - he has a chance because Moreno has been underperforming. He's still - Brown's - can still get some Trump voters, so that race is very close. And then we go to the next sort of blue wall states that - we've seen the incumbents there. They were outrunning, first, Biden and then Harris, but we've seen some tightening in those races. So Tammy Baldwin in Wisconsin - now that race is within the margin of error with her Republican opponent, Eric Hovde, who's put $20 million of his own money into that race. We're seeing that race tighten as we've seen the presidential race tighten.
And then in Pennsylvania, as well, Senator Bob Casey was running ahead of Harris in the state, but we've seen his Republican opponent, Dave McCormick - who's also benefited from a lot of outside spending and his own money - make up some ground there, particularly in more rural areas in the western part of the state. We recently shifted our rating in that state from lean Democrat to toss-up. And then there's an open seat in Michigan that's also tight, but Democrat Elissa Slotkin has been raising a lot of money. She's running against former Republican Congressman Mike Rogers. That race is very close, but I think that if Harris wins that state, then I think Slotkin also has the ability to outrun her in that instance.
MARTÍNEZ: Wow, Jessica. I loved hearing that roll call of all those states. I think I got goose bumps. It's exciting. It's fun. I know it's serious, but it's also fun, too. Any surprises out there? Any surprisingly close races or maybe surprisingly likely big wins?
TAYLOR: Well, if we see a split, then - Democrats are running ahead in Arizona and Nevada, even though, especially in Arizona, we see Trump running ahead there. That's because of candidate quality with Republican Kari Lake. But I think the two most surprising races that are tight where, if Democrats need to make up that likely loss in Montana - it's in Texas, where Ted Cruz is being challenged by Congressman Colin Allred. There was a New York Times poll out this morning. He's down by 4. But Cruz - much tighter there than for comfort with the abortion law there in the state playing a big role.
And I think the biggest surprise of the cycle is actually in Nebraska, where you have Republican Deb Fischer being challenged by independent Dan Osborn. Another New York Times poll out this morning showed her ahead only by 2 points. We have both of those races in lean Republican. Osborn's a mechanic. He's running as a blue-collar machinist, so he's been able to pick off some Republican voters, winning independent voters, winning Trump voters. He hasn't said which party he would caucus with, so it could be interesting. Let's say that if Democrats are able to run the table, only lose Montana - could it come down to Nebraska if Osborn is able to pull off that upset in which party he would caucus with?
MARTÍNEZ: I could keep talking about this with you, Jessica, for many, many minutes. But that's all we've got time for. Jessica Taylor is an election analyst with the Cook Political Report. Jessica, thank you.
TAYLOR: Thank you. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
NPR transcripts are created on a rush deadline by an NPR contractor. This text may not be in its final form and may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability may vary. The authoritative record of NPR’s programming is the audio record.
